No one knows with certainty who will win the Iowa Caucuses on Thursday night or, for that matter, the New Hampshire Primary a mere five days later.

Today, Wednesday, five different candidates still retain a real (if in some cases remote) chance of winning the Republican nomination for President of the United States but within a week one or more of those contenders may have been forced from serious competition.

It’s an ideal moment, in other words, to review the GOP “Big Five” with an eye to where the conventional wisdom is wrong, and the “secret weapons” that each of them possesses.

MITT ROMNEY

Common Misconception: The hostility to his campaign stems from anti-Mormon bigotry

Truth: Romney has effectively neutralized anti-Mormon bigotry with his superb December 6th speech – the sterling high point of his campaign, for which he received near universal acclaim. Nevertheless, for such an affable, accomplished and attractive candidate, Mitt still attracts startlingly high negative ratings: according to Rasmussen Reports, fully 47% of voters say they will “definitely” not vote for Romney in November; only Hillary Clinton herself (with an identical 47% of core opposition) provokes comparably poor reactions. The widespread hostility to Romney bears less connection to charges that his religious commitment is dangerous or “cultish,” than to fears that he has no real commitment at all. He is seen by many suspicious voters as a “phony” – an empty suit who’ll do anything to get himself elected. Kenneth Anderson of the Hoover Institution (himself a former LDS missionary, and hardly an anti-Mormon bigot) wrote of Romney in The Weekly Standard: “He is (in my humble opinion) a man of principles so pragmatic that he lacks any unshakeable political foundation, save that he ought to be president of the United States. He is a politician of the moderate center who has sat down with his consultants in the calculus of management consultants everywhere and concluded that winning the presidency must mean dropping his moderation – itself principally a means of winning office in liberal Massachusetts – and reinventing himself as a man of the right.”

Flip-flops doomed the last candidate from Massachusetts (the unlamented Jean Francois Kerry), but at least that feeble Democrat could point to consistent themes over a long career: anti-war activism, liberalism on all social issues, faith in big government programs to remake society, support for “national health care,” and so forth. Romney would find it difficult to link his failed 1994 Senate campaign with any of the themes he’s attempting to use in his presidential candidacy. Fourteen years ago, he wasn’t just on the other side of the abortion issue; he was on the opposite side of virtually every public controversy. And he took those positions not as some college student or youthful idealist, but as an already wealthy business leader and the Republican nominee for the United States Senate. This inconsistency goes along with the sense that the candidate’s too perfect, too slick, too polished and leads to the conclusion that he’s just a smooth-talking salesman trying to sell a bill of goods (himself) to the gullible public.

His Secret Weapon: An increasingly obvious ability to get tough.

For all practical purposes, the Mittster could lock up the GOP nomination with convincing wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. Team Romney understands the potential importance of these early primaries – and so do most of their rivals. If Mitt kills the Huckabee dream in Iowa, and terminates the McCain surge in New Hampshire, he becomes the clear front-runner despite any last minute stop-Mitt campaign by Rudy, Fred or others. It therefore makes sense for Romney to place all his chips on the two early states, even to the extent of going negative with saturation TV advertising slamming his major opponents and mailings that make even more distorted and dishonest charges against them. The results in Iowa and New Hampshire will indicate whether his harsh tactics pay off, but there’s at least a possibility that it’s precisely this sort of toughness – this willingness to use his own money to play hardball politics—that will persuade some wavering conservatives that Romney deserves their support.

His aggressive posture toward Huckabee and McCain plays against the image of a pampered patrician who’s never had to fight for anything in his life, and makes Romney look a bit more like the sort of gutty street fighter who could rough-up Hillary or Obama. When wounded candidates complain about negative campaigning by their opponents, they usually sound weak. Romney’s un-secret weapon involves his deep-pockets (with estimated worth of at least $250 million), while his secret weapon involves his apparent willingness to use some of his resources to knee-cap opponents. His passionate, focused, relentless pursuit of the White House may make up for his lack of passion or focus on any specific issue.

MIKE HUCKABEE

Common Misconception: He’s a one dimensional Bible-thumper who can appeal only to Evangelicals in the South and Midwest

Truth: In an election in which the term “elitist” has become a dirty word, Huckabee enjoys a serious advantage as the least elitist candidate of them all: a humble, witty, soft-spoken guy who became the first male in family history to graduate from high school. Romney’s the son of a Governor and auto executive and he studied at Harvard and Stanford (and BYU), McCain’s the son and grandson of prominent Navy admirals; Rudy’s been part of Manhattan high life and the legal power elite for so many years that he’s disconnected from his Brooklyn roots, and Fred’s more associated with Hollywood (and his glamorous young wife) than his hardscrabble upbringing in Tennessee. Huckabee, however, comes across like the ultimate underdog and an ordinary guy – so ordinary, that he even battled (and conquered) a serious weight problem that most Americans can understand. It’s not just Christian zealots who recognize Huckabee as “one of us”; I’ve spoken to non-religious Russian immigrant Jews who love him because he’s down-to-earth, plain-spoken and unpretentious non-celebrity. For the work-hard-to-get-ahead strivers who represent the heart and soul of the GOP, there are obvious, powerful points of identification. In this context, his embarrassing fumbles in reacting to Benazir Bhutto’s assassination haven’t destroyed his campaign: anyone who wanted a candidate with foreign policy credentials would have turned away from Huckabee long ago.

Huckabee’s criticism of stratospheric corporate salaries and unrestrained free trade may offend conservative opinion leaders, but it doesn’t necessarily alienate conservative voters. The fact that he’s such an obvious underdog – deemed unready for the presidency by innumerable pundits of right and left alike – only adds to the sense that he’s connected to the “little guy,” not the elites. Remember, three other Southern governors swept to the presidency with no foreign affairs expertise or credibility: their names were Carter, Clinton and Bush. President Bush famously failed a pop quiz on his knowledge of foreign leaders, but nonetheless managed to relate to salt-of-the-earth Americans. Huckabee, whose only college degree says “Ouachita Baptist University,” not Yale or Harvard, will receive more forgiveness than the current incumbent for wrongly suggesting that Afghanistan is on the eastern border of Pakistan. In any event, his populist campaign has already proven more powerful than anyone predicted, with support that reaches well beyond the “Christian Right.”

According to most polls in Iowa, he’s proven especially appealing to women—with a kinder, gentler tone that puts him in the lead among female voters of all religious persuasions, not just Evangelicals. If he can tie Romney among men, Huckabee can easily win the caucuses. In my own state of Washington – the least churched state in the union, by the way – Huckabee has attracted surprising support and the beginnings of an organization and could easily compete with Romney and Rudy at the caucuses on February 5th, if his campaign is still viable at that point. If he loses in Iowa, however, Huck almost certainly collapses as a national force: facing the obvious question: if he can’t win there, where can he win?

His Secret Weapon: Those Missing-in-Action Evangelicals.

While it’s wrong to write off the Huckabee campaign as a solely religious movement and while his base of support extends well beyond the Christian community, it’s disillusioned Evangelicals who could come back into the political process to help him win early primaries. During his years in the White House, Karl Rove spoke incessantly about “three million missing Evangelicals”: Christian conservative voters who initially intended to vote for Bush but felt disillusioned by last minute 2000 revelations about his drunk driving arrest. These believers ended up staying home and turned a solid Bush victory into a dead-heat with Al Gore. Rove and his boss dedicated much of the first Bush term to drawing these believers to the polls in 2004, and according to many analysts they made the difference in many states (including Ohio and Florida) in providing the President with his margin of victory over John Kerry. Two years later, bitterly disillusioned with the scandal-plagued and spending-crazed Republican Congress, these “Missing Eavangelicals” went AWOL once again and handed the Democrats control of both House and Senate.

They may have been disappointed and disenchanted with Bush over drunk-driving, but they felt utterly disgusted by Mark Foley and Jack Abramoff. If they get energized to re-enter the process in 2008 it can make a huge difference in both the general election and the struggle for the nomination. In caucuses and primaries, an enhanced turnout can easily tip the results and Huckabee has a real chance of reaching first time voters, or infrequent voters, who would come out for no other candidate. If he mobilizes big turnouts from outsiders (motivated by enthusiasm in churches and elsewhere) he could easily appeal to 5 to 10% of the GOP electorate that doesn’t regularly vote in primaries. The conventional wisdom on Huckabee—that his campaign will slide straight down hill after Iowa – may prove as unreliable as the assumption that without major funding he could never become a top tier candidate.

If Huckabee captures Iowa (and with that victory gets his face on the cover of news-magazines and the top of network news) he could conceivably earn January wins in South Carolina, Florida, even Michigan: in all three states, he’s been leading at one time or another in the polls. At that point, he’d be competitive in at least some of the big states that choose their delegates on February 5th. It may be true that Huckabee would have a tough time competing in a general election, but it’s premature to rule out a competitive struggle for the GOP nomination.

RUDY GIULIANI

Common Misconception: His moderate stance on social issues is killing his campaign.

Truth: It’s personality, not policy, that’s damaging his candidacy. Polls show Rudy still drawing strong support from religious conservatives who may disagree with his past positions on abortion, guns, gays, or immigration. They’ve been willing to forgive Hizzoner for his unorthodox attitudes because of his tough-guy image and his heroic leadership after 9/11; other skeptics have felt reassured by Rudy’s consistent shifts to the right on all social issues – his emphasis on appointing strict constructionist judges, establishing border security, promoting adoption and so forth. Meanwhile, it’s been intimate rather than ideological concerns that have slowed the Mayor’s momentum: especially the embarrassing revelations about the peculiar funding of a security detail assigned to protect him while he began the adulterous relationship (with his current wife) that spelled the end of his second marriage. The legal problems of former Giuliani pal and Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik also tainted Rudy’s resolute crime-buster image. Meanwhile, his inconsistent performance in televised debates dented the argument that he alone had the brass and sass to take on Hillary Clinton: when he engaged in a juvenile spat with Mitt Romney over “sanctuary cities” versus a “sanctuary mansion,” Rudy looked petty and mean and small. If a candidate can’t stand up effectively against the genial, smooth Mitt Romney, then he looks vastly less credible as a counterweight to Osama bin Laden, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and other bad guys.

His Secret Weapon: The Primary Schedule For months, the Giuliani campaign has written off Iowa and New Hampshire and it’s increasingly willing to abandon his unlikely contention in South Carolina. According to this strategy, as long as Rudy maintains his strength in national polls, he can afford to let others win the early contests before he grabs Florida on January 29 and then competes successfully in the multitude of big state primaries on February 5th. The surprising strength of Huckabee, Romney and now McCain makes Giuliani’s hold on Florida look more and more tenuous, raising the question of whether he can continue his campaign without winning the Sunshine State, or whether that battle will represent “Rudy’s Last Stand.” Actually, a quick look at the schedule suggests that barring an unexpectedly total collapse of public support, Giuliani will probably be able to compete all the way to the convention.

In part, that’s because February 5th will bring him several “home games” that he can easily win: New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Best of all, these big Northeastern states (with heavy concentrations of Giuliani’s fellow Italian-Americans, by the way) award their delegates on a “winner take all” basis, while most of the other major delegations will be split among supporters of various candidates. Most of his rivals have already conceded New York and New Jersey to Rudy, and abandoned the field: this means that even if he doesn’t do particularly well in the same day battle royal in California (which splits its delegates based on outcomes in each Congressional district), Rudy will still emerge as one of the big winners of “Tsunami Tuesday.” There’s also reason to believe that his superior organization and strong polling numbers will deliver a rich harvest of California delegates—insuring that after the first stage of the primary process, he’ll either lead the overall delegate count or else stand in second place. In any event, he’ll almost surely accumulate enough support to remain a factor in the nomination struggle all the way to the convention in Minneapolis.

JOHN McCAIN

Common Misconception: His maverick streak may endear him to Democrats and Independents but he can’t win in GOP primaries because he’s not a real conservative. Continued...